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Tesla Delivery Estimates Survey

A list of of analyst's estimates for Tesla's quarterly deliveries - Sourceful

tesla, finance, investing

104 entries Actual deliveries >> 90,650 This survey is now closed. Actual numbers are expected to be released on 2 or 3 July 2020. 2 July looks more likely.

Average excluding min/max 10% >> 88,293 -2,357 97.40%

Median >> 88,741 -1,909 97.89%

Timestamp Username Twitter handle Your Tesla delivery estimate for Q2 2020 Difference Accuracy Link to more info about your estimate Comments

27 Jun 2020, 04:46 @3xaprn3 @3xaprn3 90,750 100 99.89%

29 Jun 2020, 19:29 VBRaj @grajeevtvm 91,000 350 99.61% https://twitter.com/grajeevtvm/status/1277790627023867905 78K production; 35 K Shanghai, 43K Fremont

28 Jun 2020, 14:27 James @TSLAFanMtl 91,000 350 99.61% China 30k, Model Y 15k, Europe 12k, ROW 4k, U.S. 30k Model 3,S,X

30 Jun 2020, 20:29 garyblack00 @garyblack00 90,200 -450 99.50%

28 Jun 2020, 14:33 Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt 91,128 478 99.47% I predict China numbers to be very strong. Model Y deliveries are a bit of a wild card. Let's hope for a Q2 profit!

28 Jun 2020, 12:11 wsucougz 90,138 -512 99.44%

29 Jun 2020, 08:38 Petter @petterjacobs 90,081 -569 99.37% US S/X = 6785, US 3/Y = 34327, MIC 3/Y = 36125, INV Cars = 12845 = 90081 Based on: 70-80% of max capacity open weeks, delivery ratio of 80-85%

30 Jun 2020, 16:30 @chadhuber 91,250 600 99.34%

29 Jun 2020, 20:54 ValueAnalyst @ValueAnalyst1 90,000 -650 99.28% Model Y production ramping quickly

28 Jun 2020, 21:38 HRH-Mononoke @uwauRenato 90,000 -650 99.28%

26 Jun 2020, 18:42 Bruce.Burnworth @bruceburnworth 90,000 -650 99.28% 85k or 86k like most plus a little more for the huge drive in Tesla China

29 Jun 2020, 10:34 32no 91,400 750 99.17% ~30k inventory from Q1, expect ~78k production WW (44k Fremont & 34k Shanghai), Tesla ends Q2 with a little more than half the inventory of Q1. Split of 11.9k S/X and 79.5k 3/Y

30 Jun 2020, 13:52 Troy Teslike @TroyTeslike 89,600 -1,050 98.84% https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1278062182215942145

30 Jun 2020, 08:21 Greenhouse Gas @GasGreenhouse 92,000 1,350 98.51% Figure includes faked deliveries to china subs (´financially delivered´).

28 Jun 2020, 02:03 Tyler 92,000 1,350 98.51% 32’ China, 60’ ROW

25 Jun 2020, 23:04 James @Jamescarlisle35 89,300 -1,350 98.51%

28 Jun 2020, 12:42 schuh4 @Teslaboratory 89,200 -1,450 98.40%

28 Jun 2020, 10:26 @geordie1977 @geordie1977 89,000 -1,650 98.18%

30 Jun 2020, 02:59 viktor 92,346 1,696 98.13%

29 Jun 2020, 08:48 TanerA @nednib 92,464 1,814 98.00%

28 Jun 2020, 15:42 @Kevin_Otubu21 @Kevin_Otubu21 92,500 1,850 97.96%

28 Jun 2020, 12:03 Michael @AureliusCapital 92,500 1,850 97.96% MY + China beat

30 Jun 2020, 12:03 Andreas Hopf 88,746 -1,904 97.90% Comparatively safe well paid jobs and stock market rebound kept sales high despite COVID-19

30 Jun 2020, 03:06 elacuariano_ar @elacuariano_ar 88,736 -1,914 97.89%

30 Jun 2020, 01:14 Prin @premoil 88,700 -1,950 97.85%

30 Jun 2020, 07:57 keppie 93,000 2,350 97.41% It will be higher than expected number, but it won't be enough to justify the current stock price.

21 Jun 2020, 13:26 Jimmy @jimmy_3110 93,000 2,350 97.41% MIC - 33 EU- 12 APAC - 8 NA - 40 ( 5 SX 15 MY 20 M3)

28 Jun 2020, 13:10 vikings123 @Thinky78 93,133 2,483 97.26%

29 Jun 2020, 07:26 Spencer @sensarpensar 88,122 -2,528 97.21% 14,272 leftover inventory, all gets delivered. Production at 49,350 for fremont, fremont deliveries 47,350. GF3 43,500/40772

28 Jun 2020, 12:14 Marius Fabry @MariusFabry 93,210 2,560 97.18%

28 Jun 2020, 13:01 Steve_0_1 @Steve_0_1 87,654 -2,996 96.69%

14 Jun 2020, 23:34 JohnBeans @john_beans 87,625 -3,025 96.66%

24 Jun 2020, 16:58 Fyx0z @DiondeBoer 87,500 -3,150 96.53%

28 Jun 2020, 12:17 YunLinSJ @YunLinSJ 94,000 3,350 96.30%

30 Jun 2020, 10:06 TeslafY 87,100 -3,550 96.08%

8 Jun 2020, 06:30 Daniel V @smalltowndaniel 87,000 -3,650 95.97%

28 Jun 2020, 13:05 Tesla Crossroads @Tesla_Indiana 94,500 3,850 95.75%

30 Jun 2020, 15:35 Professor Tournesol @sjoerd87777991 94,733 4,083 95.50% Q2 Profit inbound.

26 Jun 2020, 09:21 @elonspromises @elonstruths 86,425 -4,225 95.34%

29 Jun 2020, 12:33 systim @mrwgreig 86,420 -4,230 95.33%

22 Jun 2020, 17:08 hkhemani @hkhemani 86,400 -4,250 95.31%

30 Jun 2020, 18:01 Jonathan Abraham @Jonatha76691372 95,000 4,350 95.20% 35k China 20k model y 35k model 3 5k s and x

28 Jun 2020, 14:51 ArgoK @AKotau 95,000 4,350 95.20%

15 Jun 2020, 03:50 Sausage 95,000 4,350 95.20% Fremont &Shanghai both stronger than before -> 80k production; 15k from inventory

28 Jun 2020, 11:00 heltok @_heltok_ 86,203 -4,447 95.09%

21 Jun 2020, 18:33 The Accountant 86,000 -4,650 94.87%

11 May 2020, 07:33 elonsworld @elonsworld 86,000 -4,650 94.87%

29 Jun 2020, 23:58 AndruV @MyVoooo 95,420 4,770 94.74%

28 Jun 2020, 22:15 Teemu @teseppa 95,669 5,019 94.46% Total production 82,712, of which ~80% delivered + Q1 left over inventory ~29k.

15 Jun 2020, 11:09 Joe 85,555 -5,095 94.38%

28 Jun 2020, 18:57 Scrappy Retiree @scrappyretiree 85,381 -5,269 94.19%

28 Jun 2020, 17:25 Davhod @Davhod1 96,000 5,350 94.10%

12 Apr 2020, 10:17 Cneyrial @CNeyrial 96,000 5,350 94.10% 35k M3 / 10k MY / 45k MIC3/ 6k S/X

29 Jun 2020, 13:36 GenSao @gensao 96,069 5,419 94.02%

28 Jun 2020, 13:38 NannerAirCraft @nanneraircraft 85,200 -5,450 93.99% 11k S&X, 74K 3&Y, Loss >100M

29 Jun 2020, 09:17 Test La @KrestCarl 85,001 -5,649 93.77%

29 Jun 2020, 07:15 Chris D 85,000 -5,650 93.77%

16 Jun 2020, 09:51 Hamad82 85,000 -5,650 93.77%

28 Jun 2020, 10:22 Mayur Thaker @freshjiva 84,900 -5,750 93.66%

22 Jun 2020, 01:23 First Principle Investor ᴺᵒᵗ ᶜᶠᵃ @1stPrincipleInv 96,420 5,770 93.63% MIC - 35k; Inventory draw - 20k; Fremont - 41,420

28 Jun 2020, 12:11 TrdrForLife @TrdrForLife 84,500 -6,150 93.22%

13 Jun 2020, 08:20 ICannot_Enough @icannot_enough 84,039 -6,611 92.71% https://twitter.com/ICannot_Enough/status/1271068925384589312?s=20

29 Jun 2020, 21:25 PeteBloxham @PeteBloxham 97,270 6,620 92.70% rationalisation of various sources, mostly twitter

28 Jun 2020, 12:45 [email protected] @joshuaefuller 83,900 -6,750 92.55% Guess

28 Jun 2020, 11:50 @epostema 83,777 -6,873 92.42%

29 Jun 2020, 19:36 x3ria88 @x3ria88 97,768 7,118 92.15%

15 Jun 2020, 08:38 @cbotnyse @cbotnyse 83,500 -7,150 92.11%

22 Jun 2020, 00:18 ben22777 83,250 -7,400 91.84%

29 Jun 2020, 06:14 Kevin(Twin Cities) @Fender827 82,760 -7,890 91.30%

28 Jun 2020, 19:28 Tesla Neutral @TeslaNeutral 82,500 -8,150 91.01% Model 3: US 22,000 China 28,000 Rest 16,000 Model Y: 7500 S+X: 9000

14 Jun 2020, 22:19 pbuyyala 82,300 -8,350 90.79%

28 Jun 2020, 12:38 Nel @nelson56791374 99,113 8,463 90.66%

28 Jun 2020, 17:28 Biting Bear @bitingbear 82,000 -8,650 90.46%

17 Jun 2020, 16:37 Space C-A-D-E-T @spacecadet0909 99,540 8,890 90.19% Go Tesla / Go SpaceX

30 Jun 2020, 11:23 @nemeseri @nemeseri 81,420 -9,230 89.82%

22 May 2020, 13:48 @btsparks @btsparks 81,420 -9,230 89.82%

28 Jun 2020, 11:50 ZainShafi180 @ZainS180 81,000 -9,650 89.35%

15 Jun 2020, 13:16 datathe1st 81,000 -9,650 89.35%

15 Jun 2020, 05:06 iicsa @iicsa3 81,000 -9,650 89.35%

22 Jun 2020, 13:31 matchasmMatt @matchasmmatt 100,500 9,850 89.13% https://twitter.com/MatchasmMatt/status/1275160126081708032 See thread

29 Jun 2020, 07:26 DarknStormy614 @DarknStormy614 80,200 -10,450 88.47%

28 Jun 2020, 14:14 Mick420 101,200 10,550 88.36% They will surprise

15 Jun 2020, 23:43 longfengwang @tiantianyueye 80,000 -10,650 88.25% https://twitter.com/tiantianyueye

29 Jun 2020, 12:00 Naijamusings @naijamusings 102,120 11,470 87.35%

28 Jun 2020, 12:17 EVBite @EVBite 78,500 -12,150 86.60%

29 Jun 2020, 16:12 RickLokers @ricklokers 103,000 12,350 86.38%

29 Jun 2020, 17:33 Pierre @pierreboudreau 104,000 13,350 85.27% https://twitter.com/pierreboudreau/status/1277761727837462529?s=20 88,000 produced, 16,000 from inventory

28 Jun 2020, 11:52 alexfactory @alexfactory3 76,420 -14,230 84.30% Inventory & Production will be higher. China & Y numbers very good, Model S/X, 3 lower

30 Jun 2020, 16:07 @scidood @scidood 75,300 -15,350 83.07% https://twitter.com/scidood/status/1278101011715043330?s=21 Last year this time Tesla delivered 95,356

27 Jun 2020, 11:26 MerkaST 75,000 -15,650 82.74%

25 Jun 2020, 19:47 StultusVox @StultusVox 75,000 -15,650 82.74% https://twitter.com/StultusVox/status/1274850401788014594?s=19 QoQ increase in battery/solar/other due to megapacks

16 Jun 2020, 18:37 SergioPerigoso @sergiomagnet 75,000 -15,650 82.74% I don't think the new rules for safety in Fremont did allow to restart the production at the same rate they had when they got shutdown. 45K for Fremont and 25k from Shanghai and 5k from inventory.

28 Jun 2020, 06:07 @BonaireVolt @BonaireVolt 74,568 -16,082 82.26% S+X will be lowest in past 4 years.

29 Jun 2020, 18:52 rvaa @rvaaa 73,500 -17,150 81.08%

28 Jun 2020, 12:00 OzStomper @OzStomper 71,500 -19,150 78.87%

11 Apr 2020, 20:52 Odin @the_alfather 110,000 19,350 78.65% Production: 40k China, 10k S/X, 40k M3, 15k MY + 5k draw down from inventory. Probably a combination of over and under estimating the different components. Estimate based on May 4th Fremont open.

25 Jun 2020, 17:49 Value Disciple @ValueDisciple 71,000 -19,650 78.32% 34,000 North America 9,000 Europe 25,000 China 3,000 ROW

16 Jun 2020, 09:15 Shanguus @Shanguus 70,500 -20,150 77.77%

1 Jun 2020, 04:51 @bgrahamdisciple @bgrahamdisciple 69,000 -21,650 76.12% Increasing estimate from 60 to 69K due to price cuts

29 Jun 2020, 14:03 TheVikingPolymath @LordPente 112,700 22,050 75.68% If they hit this "inconcievable" number, It's the final nail in the coffin, Fossil Fuels are dead.

28 Jun 2020, 12:15 Tizzler @Tesla_tizzler 117,100 26,450 70.82%

12 Apr 2020, 05:14 Ellec @ellec_uk 55,000 -35,650 60.67%

29 Apr 2020, 20:19 OzStomper @OzStomper 50,000 -40,650 55.16% One month Freemont slow production, Shanghai 3000 pw

28 Jun 2020, 12:01 E.V. 135,0

Tesla Delivery Estimates Survey
Info
Tags Tesla, Finance, Investing
Type Google Sheet
Published 05/07/2020, 23:12:08

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