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COVID-19 Model, SARS-CoV-2

Coronavirus models - Sourceful

coronavirus, data, forecast, USA

https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily?fbclid=IwAR2YchqMZuLtz6MQMvX9Zz9VOZo_GJg3m6A7YM3IqgeWov0BfSYVrXpXPN8

LAST REFRESH: APRIL 30, 2020

Date Positive Deaths 7 Day Mortality (Previous) 7 Day Projection IMHE Projection

4-Mar 118 10

5-Mar 176 11

6-Mar 223 14

7-Mar 341 16

8-Mar 417 18

9-Mar 584 22

10-Mar 778 24

11-Mar 1,054 27 22.88%

12-Mar 1,315 36 20.45%

13-Mar 1,922 39 17.49%

14-Mar 2,450 49 14.37%

15-Mar 3,173 60 14.39%

16-Mar 4,019 71 12.16%

17-Mar 5,722 90 11.57%

18-Mar 7,730 112 10.63% 241

19-Mar 11,719 160 12.17% 269

20-Mar 17,033 219 11.39% 336

21-Mar 23,197 272 11.10% 352

22-Mar 31,879 398 12.54% 457

23-Mar 42,152 471 11.72% 489

24-Mar 51,954 675 11.80% 662

25-Mar 63,928 900 11.64% 821

26-Mar 80,735 1,163 9.92% 1,426

27-Mar 99,413 1,530 8.98% 1,941

28-Mar 118,234 1,965 8.47% 2,575

29-Mar 139,061 2,428 7.62% 3,999

30-Mar 160,530 2,939 6.97% 4,940

31-Mar 184,683 3,746 7.21% 6,129

1-Apr 210,816 4,700 7.35% 7,443

2-Apr 239,099 5,784 7.16% 8,012

3-Apr 271,988 6,962 7.00% 8,930

4-Apr 305,755 8,314 7.03% 10,016

5-Apr 332,308 9,498 6.83% 10,591

6-Apr 361,331 10,680 6.65% 11,193

7-Apr 392,594 12,621 6.83% 13,316

8-Apr 423164 14495 6.88% 15,499

9-Apr 457,963 16,399 6.86% 17,129

10-Apr 491156 18356 6.75% 19,048

11-Apr 523,278 20,339 6.65% 21,500

12-Apr 551,826 21,919 6.60% 22,697

13-Apr 576,774 23,369 6.47% 24,039

14-Apr 602,473 25,668 6.54% 26,829

15-Apr 632656 28160 6.65% 29,095

16-Apr 663,260 30,296 6.62% 31,410

17-Apr 686,914 32,356 6.59% 33,147

18-Apr 722,182 34,139 6.52% 34,809

19-Apr 749203 35793 6.49% 36,398

20-Apr 772,524 37,321 6.47% 37,303

21-Apr 799717 39995 6.64% 39,390

22-Apr 826,936 42,103 6.65% 42,101

23-Apr 859,318 44,014 6.64% 43,877

24-Apr 890816 45786 6.67% 45,252

25-Apr 931,698 47,980 6.64% 47,116

26-Apr 959,056 49,164 6.56% 48,595

27-Apr 981,134 50,327 6.51% 49,987

28-Apr 1,005,592 52,525 6.57% 53,089

29-Apr 1,033,157 55,225 6.68% 55,032

30-Apr 1,061,101 57,266 6.66% 57,024

1-May 59,377

2-May 61,900

3-May 62,935

4-May 63,917

5-May 66,047

6-May 68,997

7-May 70,713

Date Positive Total Tests Test Positive (%) 7 day DGR (Cases) Deaths 7 day DGR (Deaths) Mortality Rate (-17 day) Mortality Rate (-10 day) Mortality Rate (-7 day) Mortality Rate (-5 day)

3/4/20 118 866 14% 10

3/5/20 176 1,129 16% 11

3/6/20 223 1,794 12% 14

3/7/20 341 2,150 16% 16

3/8/20 417 2,752 15% 18

3/9/20 584 3,951 15% 22

3/10/20 778 4,585 17% 24

3/11/20 1,054 7,124 15% 37% 27 15%

3/12/20 1,315 9,356 14% 33% 36 18%

3/13/20 1,922 15,535 12% 36% 39 16%

3/14/20 2,450 19,552 13% 33% 49 17%

3/15/20 3,173 25,724 12% 34% 60 19%

3/16/20 4,019 40,123 10% 32% 71 18% 6.74%

3/17/20 5,722 53,326 11% 33% 90 21% 6.84%

3/18/20 7,730 73,955 10% 33% 112 23% 5.83%

3/19/20 11,719 100,872 12% 37% 160 24% 6.53%

3/20/20 17,033 135,180 13% 37% 219 28% 6.90%

3/21/20 23,197 179,106 13% 38% 272 28% 231% 6.77%

3/22/20 31,879 225,342 14% 39% 398 31% 226% 30.27% 6.96%

3/23/20 42,152 279,473 15% 40% 471 31% 211% 24.51% 11.72% 6.09%

3/24/20 51,954 344,732 15% 37% 675 33% 198% 27.55% 11.80% 5.76%

3/25/20 63,928 421,532 15% 35% 900 35% 216% 28.36% 11.64% 5.28%

3/26/20 80,735 519,338 16% 32% 1,163 33% 199% 28.94% 9.92% 5.01%

3/27/20 99,413 626,633 16% 29% 1,530 32% 197% 26.74% 8.98% 4.80%

3/28/20 118,234 735,704 16% 26% 1,965 33% 186% 25.42% 8.47% 4.66%

3/29/20 139,061 831,351 17% 23% 2,428 29% 185% 20.72% 7.62% 4.67%

3/30/20 160,530 944,854 17% 21% 2,939 30% 153% 17.25% 6.97% 4.60%

3/31/20 184,683 1,048,884 18% 20% 3,746 28% 153% 16.15% 7.21% 4.64%

4/1/20 210,770 1,149,960 18% 19% 4,700 27% 148% 14.74% 7.35% 4.73%

4/2/20 239,009 1,267,658 19% 17% 5,784 26% 144% 13.72% 7.16% 4.89%

4/3/20 271,915 1,407,271 19% 15% 6,962 24% 122% 13.40% 7.00% 5.01%

5 Day Mortality Rate

RAW 3pt avg delta

4.73%

Projection Confirmed Cases (5 days prior) Projected US Deaths (5-day) Projection Accuracy (+5) Projected 5-day mortality rate Observed 5-day mortality rate Actual Deaths IMHE Projections (4/3) IMHE Accuracy 4.89%

4/3/20 139,061 6,882 -1.16% 4.95% 5.01% 6,962 7,004 0.60% 5.01% 4.88%

4/4/20 160,530 7,945 -4.64% 4.95% 5.18% 8,314 8,363 0.59% 5.18% 5.03% 0.15%

0 4/5/20 184,683 9,641 1.49% 5.22% 5.14% 9,498 9,893 3.99% 5.14% 5.11% 0.08%

1 4/6/20 210,770 11,506 7.18% 5.46% 5.07% 10,680 11,592 7.87% 5.16% 0.05%

2 4/7/20 239,009 13,723 8.03% 5.74% 5.28% 12,621 13,457 6.21% 5.14% -0.02%

3 4/8/20 271,915 16,502 6.07% 14,581 5.21% 0.07%

4 4/9/20 305,755 16,070 5.26% 17,560 5.26% 0.05%

5 4/10/20 332,308 17,587 5.29% 19,946 5.29% 0.04%

4/11/20 361,331

4/12/20 392,594

Note: On 4/6 Updated 5-day Proejction rate methodology to be average of previous 4 days first derivative.

Previous idea (4/3) was to project linear growth of first derivative into perpetuity, these projections can be seen in red

Previous methodology (4/2) didn't have good smoothing as was discontinuous in the april 6 to 7 time frame

Historic Days Date Total Positive Cases Total Tests Hospitalized Deaths Positive Negative Pending Total (positive + negative) Positive % Negative % Implied extra positive cases Implied extra negative cases Total Positive Cases Total Tests % Positive

-26 4-Mar 132 969 0 0 118 748 103 866 14% 86% 14 89 132 969 14%

-25 5-Mar 207 1326 0 0 176 953 197 1,129 16% 84% 31 166 207 1326 16%

-24 6-Mar 280 2252 0 0 223 1,571 458 1,794 12% 88% 57 401 280 2252 12%

-23 7-Mar 436 2752 0 0 341 1,809 602 2,150 16% 84% 95 507 436 2752 16%

-22 8-Mar 470 3099 0 0 417 2,335 347 2,752 15% 85% 53 294 470 3099 15%

-21 9-Mar 630 4264 0 0 584 3,367 313 3,951 15% 85% 46 267 630 4264 15%

Uncorrected -20 10-Mar 858 5054 0 0 778 3,807 469 4,585 17% 83% 80 389 858 5054 17%

36.00% -19 11-Mar 1136 7686 0 27 1,053 6,070 563 7,123 15% 85% 83 480 1136 7686 15%

31.53% -18 12-Mar 1410 10029 0 36 1,315 8,041 673 9,356 14% 86% 95 578 1410 10029 14%

33.01% -17 13-Mar 2062 16665 0 39 1,922 13,613 1,130 15,535 12% 88% 140 990 2062 16665 12%

29.09% -16 14-Mar 2605 20788 0 49 2,450 17,102 1,236 19,552 13% 87% 155 1081 2605 20788 13%

32.95% -15 15-Mar 3450 27966 0 60 22.45% 3,173 22,551 2,242 25,724 12% 88% 277 1965 3450 27966 12%

31.08% -14 16-Mar 4188 41814 0 71 18.33% 4,019 36,104 1,691 40,123 10% 90% 169 1522 4188 41814 10%

31.72% -13 17-Mar 5904 55014 0 90 26.76% 5,723 47,604 1,687 53,327 11% 89% 181 1506 5904 55014 11%

32.15% -12 18-Mar 7995 76493 0 112 24.44% 7,730 66,225 2,538 73,955 10% 90% 265 2273 7995 76493 10%

35.90% -11 19-Mar 12071 103863 0 160 42.86% 11,719 89,119 3,025 100,838 12% 88% 352 2673 12071 103863 12%

35.68% -10 20-Mar 17453 138516 0 219 36.88% 17,033 118,147 3,336 135,180 13% 87% 420 2916 17453 138516 13%

37.04% -9 21-Mar 23647 182583 1,964 272 24.20% 23,197 155,909 3,477 179,106 13% 87% 450 3027 23647 182583 13%

37.64% -8 22-Mar 32281 228184 2,554 398 46.32% 31,879 193,463 2,842 225,342 14% 86% 402 2440 32281 228184 14%

40.09% -7 23-Mar 44350 294044 3,325 471 18.34% 42,152 237,321 14,571 279,473 15% 85% 2198 12373 44350 294044 15%

37

COVID-19 Model, SARS-CoV-2
Info
Tags Coronavirus, Data, Forecast, USA
Type Google Sheet
Published 23/03/2020, 11:30:09

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